'Breaking Dawn': How Long Can It Top The Box Office?

The box-office battle of Thanksgiving weekend has come and gone, and "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1" once again emerged as the victor.

 The penultimate entry in the vampire romance series pulled off an impressive haul of an estimated $62.3 million, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. The weekend brought the film's domestic total to roughly $221 million, and survived formidable competition from "The Muppets," which earned a respectable $42 million.
But what do the upcoming weeks hold for "Breaking Dawn - Part 1"? We consulted some box-office experts to find out.

One of the biggest questions right now for "Breaking Dawn - Part 1" is whether it will continue to dominate the box office for a third week in a row. With only "Shame" — a small indie film by comparison — opening next week, the stage is set for another rematch between "Breaking Dawn" and "The Muppets." Phil Contrino from Boxoffice.com said there is some potential for growth in the case of "The Muppets."

"It'll be close between ['Breaking Dawn - Part 1'] and 'The Muppets,' because ['The Muppets'] has much better word of mouth," he said, but he indicated that it was too soon to say which would come out on top.
Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations, on the other hand, sees the weekend going to "The Muppets." The fight for second place will be between "Breaking Dawn - Part 1" and "Hugo," he said.

" 'Breaking Dawn' is performing almost identically to 'New Moon' and will likely dip another 60 to 65 percent next weekend and gross $14 million to 16 million," Bock said. "That probably won't keep it at #1, as family films hold exceptionally well during the holiday season. That means 'The Muppets' will jump to #1, and depending on how many screens 'Hugo' jumps to, it may be in a fight for second place."

Both Bock and Contrino expect "Breaking Dawn - Part 1" to finish its domestic run in the range of $300 million but say that we should expect a steep drop-off once more holiday films like "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" hit theaters.

"It's still going to fall fast," Contrino said. "By the time 'The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo' and 'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol' hit, the audience will have almost entirely disappeared."